Abstract
States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF indicating that the United States, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, Italy and Germany may have received at least one travel-related YF case capable of seeding local transmission. Mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance globally.
Highlights
States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America
We show in the Figure the expected number of YF cases departing from Brazil before recovery, comprising exportations and importations, for the destination countries with an upper 95% confidence limit exceeding one case over all states in the south-east of Brazil
We found that the United States, Latin America ( Argentina, Chile and Uruguay), and Europe ( Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain) may have already received at least one travel-related YF case capable of seeding local transmission
Summary
States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America. The cumulative number of confirmed cases reported in the south-east of Brazil was obtained from the weekly epidemiological bulletins on YF published online by the Brazilian Ministry of Health [3].
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