Abstract
ABSTRACTCan international criminal prosecutions initiated during ongoing conflict prevent atrocities? This article addresses this question through a case study of the impact of international prosecutions vis-à-vis the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), a Rwandan rebel group active in the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This study finds mixed evidence concerning the impact of international prosecutions with respect to this group. On the one hand, the arrest of three FDLR political leaders in Europe and the issuance of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for a senior FDLR military commander in DRC contributed to the prevention of atrocities by reducing the FDLR’s military capacity. However, the same ICC warrant also generated perverse incentives for hardline elements in the FDLR to spoil peace initiatives, indirectly exacerbating atrocities, and other international legal actions—including the opening of the ICC investigation in DRC and indictments, arrests, and convictions targeting members of other armed groups—had negligible effects.
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