International photovoltaic markets, developments and trends forecast to 2010

Abstract

The 1993 world shipments increased only 6.7% from 57.9MW in 1992 to 60.69MW in 1993. European shipments increased 1% from 16.4MW in 1992 to 16.55MW in 1993. U..S. shipments increased 24.0% to 22.44MW and Japanese shipments decreased 8% to 17.3MW. The status of all major PV module producers will be summarized. New entrants in the thin film area include: Golden Photon (CdTe), Solar Cells Inc. (CdTe), United Solar Systems (triple-stack amorphous silicon), and B.P. Solar (CdTe). In the silicon crystal area, plant expansions have been made by Siemens Solar Industries, B.P. Solar, and Solec. New crystal silicon entrants include: Astropower, Texas Instruments, Nukem, and Gallivare. Potential capacity increases by 1996 of 75–100MW are described. Module performance (efficiency and warranty), and manufacturing costs will be summarized and forecast to 2010. In the limit, the sliced silicon product tends to approach profitable prices of $2.00 per watt, while several thin-film options and concentrators can be manufactured with profitable prices less than $1.50 per watt. The world market for PV modules is summarized by market sector and forecast to 2010 under two scenarios -- “Business as Usual” and “Accelerated“. Under the Business as Usual assumptions, world PV module shipments are forecast to be 195 MW in 2000 and 800MW in 2010. The Accelerated scenario forecasts world module shipments in 2000 to be 440 MW and 4000 MW in 2010. Module shipments for the last four years have been growing at a rate well below the BAU scenario .