International Order and Global Swing States

Abstract

The rise of four powerful democraciesBrazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkeypresents one of the most significant opportunities for U.S. foreign policy in the early 21st century. The democracies that have newly emerged on the global stage collectively possess the capability and the legitimacy to bolster the interlocking web of norms, institutions, rules, and relationships that has for six decades preserved peace among the great powers, fostered economic prosperity, and facilitated the spread of freedom. This global order now confronts numerous challenges, some emanating from China's rise and others from a diverse set of international developments. If these challenges eventually fragment the international order, the United States, its allies, and all other countries that depend upon an open and stable world will suffer the consequences. Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey offer great potential as partners to extend the global order. Though separated by location and historical experience, these countries share not only a common commitment to democratic institutions but also possess large and growing economies while inhabiting strategic locations in their respective regions. And critically, the precise global role of each is in flux. These four rising democracies might be termed ''global swing states.'' 1 In the American political context, swing states are those whose mixed political orientation gives them a greater impact than their population or economic output might warrant. This applies to Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey. The choices they makewhether they take on new responsibilities, free-ride, or obstructwill, in aggregate, decisively influence the trajectory of today's world.