Abstract
ABSTRACTAlthough ‘Seguro Popular’ (SP), a healthcare programme for the uninsured, has been in place in Mexico for more than a decade, its consequences for international migration both to and from the country have received little scholarly attention. Using the spatial variation in the programme’s coverage generated through the rollout over time, this paper examines the effects of SP on the number of emigrants and return migrants per household. Based on data from Mexico’s National Survey on Demographic Dynamics for 1997–2014, the analysis confirms that being affiliated to SP does not reduce the number of emigrants per household, but such affiliation is, however, positively related to the number of returnees per household. These results are valid across different subsamples of the population and time periods and are robust to omitted variable bias. Our findings have important implications for understanding the effects of social protection policies on international migration patterns.
Highlights
Only those Mexicans who worked in the formal sector and were, affiliated to state social security institutions had access to public healthcare
The federal government implemented in 2001 the ‘Seguro Popular’ (SP) programme, which provides access to public healthcare to the uninsured – including those who are unemployed, self-employed or who work outside the formal sector
The ENADID is a nationally representative survey, which compiles socio-economic and demographic information on Mexican households – including the number of members who immigrated to the USA over the past 5 years and of those who lived in the USA 5 years ago
Summary
Only those Mexicans who worked in the formal sector and were, affiliated to state social security institutions had access to public healthcare. As the number of SP beneficiaries has increased, the number of Mexican immigrants entering the USA has simultaneously steadily dropped, and the volume of Mexican migrants leaving the USA has increased (Passel, Cohn, & González Barrera, 2012) Despite these developments, little is currently known about the consequences of the expansion of healthcare access for the dynamics of international migration decisions by Mexicans. Using data from Mexico’s National Survey on Demographic Dynamics (ENADID, in Spanish) for the years 1997, 2006, 2009 and 2014, this paper shows that the programme’s coverage has no effect on the number of international emigrants per household – but it is, positively related to the number of returnees therein These results cast doubt on the effectiveness of universal healthcare programmes in curbing international outmigration in developing countries like Mexico, where the quality of public healthcare is faltering, and informality is pervasive.
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