International bank lending: Political risk and portfolio diversification

Abstract

The extent to which a large U.S. bank, all U.S. banks, and banks in the Group of Ten took account of political risk in their international country exposures in 1976 is tested using a simple portfolio diversification model. Assuming that political risks are important relative to economic risks, and that political risks are uncorrelated across countries, these banks' exposures should be negatively related to political risk indices. However, the portfolios of these banks appear to be related to political risk only insofar as political risk is roughly approximated by GNP per capita. International banks were not yet able to systematically vary their international portfolios with respect to political risk.