International Alliances in the Power Cycle Theory of State Behavior

Abstract

This study proposes that critical points are causally related to the formation of alliances, and that the relationship between alliances and war can be better understood as a relationship between critical points and war, with alliances as an intermediate variable. At these points of structural change in the system, states will seek protection against the uncertainty of massive alterations in their future foreign policy roles and security positions by forming alliances. Statistical analyses of empirical data and historical case-study material support this link between power cycle theory and alliance theory.