Internalizing Climate Change—Scientific Resource Management and the Climate Change Challenges

Michael Dettinger,Steven Culberson

doi:10.15447/sfews.2008v6iss2art5

Michael Dettinger, Steven Culberson

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2008v6iss2art5

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Abstract

Current projections of climate change present a number of challenges to scientists and decision-makers. The projections predict a twenty-first-century climate in which many climate variables are likely to trend across broad geographical areas and at rates that are rapid by historical standards. The projections of change are likely to remain uncertain for many years to come, and complete surprises are possible. Responses to these changes will have to span large areas and many variables, and impacts will interact in complex ways. In the face of these challenges, we offer recommendations as to strategic approaches that the CALFED Science Program—which serves here as an important and illustrative example from among the many current scientific resource- and ecosystem-management programs—and the scientific and public-policy communities in central California, in general, may need to pursue. Recommended strategies include emphasis on long-term eco- and resource-system adaptability—rather than historical verisimilitude—in its restoration targets; major commitments to long-term monitoring of restoration and impacts; even more integration across scientific disciplines, observations, models, and across the study area; increased use of manipulative experiments; and recognition that climate-change issues must be addressed in all efforts undertaken by the program.

Highlights

INTRODUCTIONRefinements are suggested for CALFED’s adaptive-management strategies to accommodate the challenges and uncertainties associated with projected twenty-first-century climate changes
The recent increase in scientific and public concern about climate change has many agencies searching for ways to address the predicted changes in their planning and operations
Climate change presents a wide range of challenges that may be addressed best by “internalizing” the issue, rather than by treating it as a new and separate problem

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Refinements are suggested for CALFED’s adaptive-management strategies to accommodate the challenges and uncertainties associated with projected twenty-first-century climate changes Taken together, these suggestions amount to a recommendation that the climate-change problem be internalized to become an integral part of the future envisioned by the CALFED Science Program and the Bay-Delta community at large, rather than externalized as a problem that can be addressed in isolation. 1. The climate of twenty-first-century California is expected to experience long-term human-induced changes in response to greenhouse gases that have been added to the global climate system by human activities historically and in the near future. Increase climate-science literacy and education Prioritize ecosystem adaptability in restoration efforts Evaluate opportunities for operational responses

Change will be rapid

Surprises are likely

Findings

CONCLUSION