Abstract
Climate change and air pollution are two major societal problems. Their complex interplay calls for an advanced evaluation framework that can support decision making. Previous assessments have looked at the co-benefits of climate policies for air pollution, but few have optimised air pollution benefits. In our study, we lay out a modelling framework that internalises air pollution's economic impacts on human mortality, while considering climate constraints and aerosol feedback. We developed a modelling framework based on an integrated assessment model (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid [WITCH]) designed to assess optimal climate change mitigation policies. We included structural and end-of-pipe measures in a detailed process integrated assessment model, that is hard-linked to air pollution and climate models. We analysed a large set of baseline scenarios, including five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP scenarios were also tested with three different levels of value per statistical life, and were combined with the Paris Agreement temperature targets (TTs), focusing on the 2°C and 1·5°C TTs by the end of the century. We found that, in the baseline scenarios, where no policies are applied, the number of annual premature deaths grew before declining slightly to 4·45 (range 3·86-6·11) million annual premature deaths by 2050. Reaching the Paris Agreement TT decreases mortality by approximately 0·47 million premature deaths by 2050 (up to 1·28 million premature deaths in SSP3 -1·5°C) with respect to the baseline. We showed that welfare-maximising policies accounting for air pollution benefits reduces premature mortality by 1·62 million deaths annually. This is three times greater than the co-benefits of climate policies. China is the region where most of the avoided mortality is possible, whereas the reforming economies (ie, non-EU eastern European countries, including Russia) region has the greatest welfare benefits. We find that global and regional welfare increases when air pollution impacts are internalised, with no negative repercussions on global inequality. Air pollution control strategies are found to be an important complement to structural emission reductions. Accounting for air pollution impacts reduces climate mitigation costs and inequality and increases global and regional welfare. Results are robust to a broad set of scenarios and assumptions, including debated normative choices on how to value improved health. EU Commission projects: INNOPATHS, NAVIGATE, ENGAGE, and COMMIT.
Highlights
Climate change affects many aspects of our societies.[1]
We developed a modelling framework based on an integrated assessment model (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid [WITCH]) designed to assess optimal climate change mitigation policies
We showed that welfare-maximising policies accounting for air pollution benefits reduces premature mortality by 1·62 million deaths annually
Summary
Climate change affects many aspects of our societies.[1]. Air pollution is responsible for millions of deaths world wide[2,3,4,5,6,7] as well as substantial crop yield loss each year.[8,9] Climate change and air pollution share a common origin (ie, fuel burning) and a common solution (ie, a clean and fair energy transition). EOP technologies reduce only air pollutants whereas the energy sector’s structural transformations (here referred to as structural measures) reduce both air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs), but mostly GHGs. A few studies have done cost–benefit integrated assessments of air pollution and climate controls.[17,18] their accounting of the air pollutant emissions pathways is simplistic. A few studies have done cost–benefit integrated assessments of air pollution and climate controls.[17,18] their accounting of the air pollutant emissions pathways is simplistic They do not feature important elements, such as the EOP investments, a detailed energy system representation,[17] or the aerosol reduction impact on temperature.[18] Our paper is designed to fill this gap using a detailed energy model with endogenous EOP investments, which optimally accounts for the www.thelancet.com/planetary-health Vol 6 January 2022
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