Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in China

Abstract

This monograph provides a systematic analysis of interprovincial migration in China and regional population dynamics since the 1950s. Data were obtained from the 1% sample survey of 1987. Chapters are devoted to an examination of the main features of population distribution and spatial differences of major demographic indicators, the causes and selectivity of migration, and the structure of migration. Explanatory models are used to estimate regional in- and out-migration rates and to identify factors that determine regional differences between those rates. The analysis of regional population trends since the 1950s is used to produce multiregional population projections at the provincial level for the period 1987-2087. The final chapter discusses the implications for socioeconomic development of regional population trends. Employment, marriage, and reunions with family are the three main causes of migration in China. City migrants tend to move between cities, while town and county migrants move to other towns in the same province or cities in other provinces. The eastern economic zones (Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangxi) had net in-migration during 1982-87. Other regions with net in-migration included the middle and western economic zones, with the exception of Hubei and Ningxi provinces, which had net out-migration. Most interprovincial migration flows were between neighboring provinces. The direction of flows was from less developed middle and western economic zones to more developed eastern economic zones. The migration pattern during 1982-87 reversed the pattern during 1949-78. The migration flows were sensitive to the shift in migration policy, to economic reforms, and to strategies of economic development that favored the east coast. The natural components of population change will have a vital impact on regional population changes, which are unevenly distributed across the nation.