Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge

Abstract

A theory is proposed in which beliefs in the form of internal cue validities mediate the processing of ecological cue validities in the assessment of confidence. The conditions necessary for perfect calibration are specified: (a) correspondence between ecological and internal validity, (b) perfect translation of internal validity into a confidence assessment, and (c) consistent utilization of cues. Process errors are then added to these conditions to investigate how calibration is affected by error variance of confidence assessments. To accomplish this, the calibration score ( C) is decomposed into three additive parts: D 2 = bias, i.e., the squared difference between mean confidence and proportion correct; R 2 = resolution, i.e., the squared difference between the standard deviations of confidence and proportion correct; L = linearity, i.e., how closely the calibration curve follows a linear function. In the equation C = D 2 + R 2 + L, R 2 (resolution) reflects the subject′s ability to discriminate cue validities. Selection of items is a critical factor in studies of confidence. Informal selection with a tendency to avoid easy items results in overconfidence. Internal cue theory predicts both that overconfidence should disappear (in accordance with previous research) and that resolution should improve when item selection is made representative of the natural environment. Both predictions are confirmed by data from published studies on confidence in general knowledge. It is noteworthy that resolution is still poor and accounts for the major portion of miscalibration under representative item selection.