Abstract
ObjectiveTo examine countries’ engagement with the health impacts of climate change in their formal statements to intergovernmental organizations, and the factors driving engagement.MethodsWe obtained the texts of countries’ annual statements in United Nations (UN) general debates from 2000 to 2019 and their nationally determined contributions at the Paris Agreement in 2016. To measure countries’ engagement, we used a keyword-in-context text search with relevant search terms to count the total number of references to the relationship of health to climate change. We used a machine learning model (random forest predictions) to identify the most important country-level predictors of engagement. The predictors included political and economic factors, health outcomes, climate change-related variables and membership of political negotiating groups in the UN.FindingsFor both UN general debate statements and nationally determined contributions, low- and middle-income countries discussed the health impacts of climate change much more than did high-income countries. The most important predictors of engagement were health outcomes (infant mortality, maternal deaths, life expectancy), countries’ income levels (gross domestic product per capita), and fossil fuel consumption. Membership of political negotiating groups (such as the Group of 77 and Small Island Developing States) was a less important predictor.ConclusionOur analysis indicated a higher engagement in countries that carry the heaviest climate-related health burdens, but lack necessary resources to address the impacts of climate change. These countries are shouldering responsibility for reminding the global community of the implications of climate change for people’s health.
Highlights
IntroductionA key arena for global engagement is the United Nations (UN), the largest and most influential intergovernmental organization in the world.[10] the UN includes a range of structures that enable governments to engage with health and climate change, we know little about the extent to which countries do so
Climate change is taking an increasing toll on people’s health
Our analysis indicated a higher engagement in countries that carry the heaviest climate-related health burdens, but lack necessary resources to address the impacts of climate change
Summary
A key arena for global engagement is the United Nations (UN), the largest and most influential intergovernmental organization in the world.[10] the UN includes a range of structures that enable governments to engage with health and climate change, we know little about the extent to which countries do so. Previous studies point to generally low levels of government engagement with climate change and health in the UN General Assembly, with the Small Island Developing States driving engagement.[1] Studies of the nationally determined contributions, which countries submit as part of the Paris Agreement (see below), suggest that, while most countries reference health, few nationally determined contributions included detailed discussions of health plans.[11,12,13] This finding has led some commentators to argue that health remains peripheral to climate change politics.[14]
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