Abstract
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
Highlights
There is rising optimism about Africa, a continent with 1.2 billion opportunities, as the Economist (2016) touted not long ago
The likelihood that children born to parents with no education complete primary schooling exceeds 70% in South Africa and Botswana; the corresponding statistic in Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Malawi hovers below 20%
Motivated by evidence from the recent research agenda on intergenerational mobility (e.g., Chetty et al (2020a)) showing that upward mobility is higher in regions with better outcomes and research on African growth stressing poverty traps and slow convergence (e.g., Gunning and Collier (1999)), we examine the association between IM and literacy rates of the “old generation”
Summary
There is rising optimism about Africa, a continent with 1.2 billion opportunities, as the Economist (2016) touted not long ago. The formerly “hopeless continent” is gradually becoming the “hopeful” one (Economist (2000, 2011)). Educational attainment is rising, health is improving, and the income of many Africans is growing. Some even speak of an African “growth miracle” (Young (2012)). Anecdotal evidence indicates widespread inequalities, uneven progress, and poverty traps, suggesting that the “miracle” may not be for all.
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