Intergenerational mobility and voting in the presidential election: Evidence from U.S. counties

Abstract

According to conventional knowledge, higher intergenerational mobility is related to lower preferences for redistribution and, thus, lower support for liberal (i.e. left-wing) political parties. While most of previous studies use survey responses to elicit political preferences, I use county-level statistics of intergenerational mobility and voting patterns to analyze the link between the two. I find that, even after controlling for average income, income inequality , and other characteristics of counties, the vote share for the Democratic candidate in the 2008 presidential election is significantly lower in counties with higher intergenerational mobility. • Intergenerational mobility may be related to preferences for redistribution. • I use county-level statistics of intergenerational mobility and voting patterns to analyze the link between the two. • The vote share for Obama in the 2008 presidential election is lower in counties with higher intergenerational mobility. • The results hold even after controlling for average income, income inequality, and other characteristics of counties.