Interference of Human Impacts in Urban Growth Modelling with Transition Rules of Cellular Automata, GIS and Multi-Temporal Satellite Imagery: A Case Study of Maraghe, Iran

Abstract

Urban growth is the result of physical and human impacts. In this study Cellular Automata (CA) has been used to analyze physical suitability and human forces in urban growth modelling of Maraghe. The multi-temporal satellite imagery, physical suitability and human impacts Layers have been applied to the modelling. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the image classification methods, Fuzzy ARTMAP is compared with Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Minimum Distance Classification (MDC) methods. The image classification results showed an overall accuracy of 93 %. Therefore, it is employed for classification of multi-temporal satellite imagery. In order to weight physical suitability and human impacts layers or geographical transition rules in the modelling, regression analysis, the correlation coefficient, trial-and-error method and visual comparison used. The statistical methods are presented to validate neighbourhood scales in the urban growth modelling. The calibration of the model is in fact to the estimate value of the physical suitability and human impacts layer (combinatory layer of demand for urban land and the government facilities) in the modelling. The results obtained from the model calibration showed that human impacts have the highest influence in the urban growth among other factors. Also a small neighbourhood scale (25:5 × 5 cells) is more realistic in the modeling. The accuracy of final validation is 83 % and the final scenario is based on this validation. A fuzzy CA has been used in urban growth modeling of Maraghe. The final scenario shows that Maraghe will growth on the east side, where the land demand for built up area and government facilities plays the significant role.