Abstract
Over the period 1979-92, investments in Danish and Norwegian kroner in the Euromarket have had an annual excess return of about 2 and 1.1 per cent, compared to investments in the Euromarket in foreign currencies. Assuming risk neutrality, the subjective probability of a devaluation within the next month is derived from the excess returns on the Euromarket. These derived probabilities are found to be inconsistent with the actual number of devaluations that have taken place over this period, so that the probability of devaluation has been significantly overrated for Denmark and Norway.
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