Interdependencies in security of electricity supply

Abstract

The analysis of security of electricity supply (SoES) is particularly complex due to, among others, the liberalisation process and the increasing penetration of renewable energies. Larsen et al. [1] propose a framework based on twelve dimensions to evaluate SoES for a single jurisdiction. However, actions aimed at improving one dimension might impact others negatively, adversely affecting the overall system. Understanding how these dimensions are interrelated is thus a prerequisite for appropriate planning and resource allocation. We apply a Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to these dimensions to determine the degree to which the different dimensions depend on each other. From this we derive an influence diagram to visualise the interdependencies and a scatter plot to categorise the dimensions as independent, driver, connector or outcome. Actions targeting the drivers or connectors are potentially the more effective ones a regulator can take, as the consequences will gradually ripple through the system. Having an integral view of the dimensions' interdependencies provides a better understanding of the higher-order changes an intervention may cause. This enables policymakers and regulators to identifying where in the system to intervene to achieve the desired effect with the least amount of resources and with as few undesirable side-effects as possible.