Interdependence in a Crisis Situation

Abstract

Using a multiplicatively enhanced version of cognitive mapping techniques, this study first analyzes two of President Kennedy's speeches during the Carribean Crisis (known in the United States as the Cuban Missile Crisis). Text analysis shows a sharp decline in the ratio of controlled to uncontrolled events, an increased role for environmental variables, and crisis tangles with multiple negative effects on U.S. goals. A counterfactual computer simulation of alternative U.S. crisis scenarios, based on the cognitive maps, suggests that expectations of Soviet “sincerity” and “restraint” were crucial in achieving mutually satisfactory deescalatory responses. These results suggest the beginnings of new thinking about mutual sincerity, the priority of avoiding nuclear war, and international interdependence.