Interdecadal Changes of the MERRA-2 Incoming Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) and Evaluation against GEBA & BSRN Stations

Abstract

This study assesses and evaluates the 40-year (1980–2019) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2) surface solar radiation (SSR) as well as its interdecadal changes (Δ(SSR)) against high quality reference surface measurements from 1397 Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and 73 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations. The study is innovative since MERRA-2 (Δ(SSR)) has never been evaluated in the past, while the MERRA-2 SSR fluxes themselves have not been evaluated in such large spatial scale, which is global here, and temporal basis, which counts 40-years. Other novelties of the study are the use of the highest quality BSRN stations, done for the first time in such an evaluation, as well as the use of a greater number of reference-GEBA stations than in other studies. Moreover, the assessment and evaluation in this study are largely based on SSR anomalies, while being done in depth, at spatial scales ranging from the local to global/hemispherical, and separately for land and ocean areas, and at temporal scales spanning intervals from decadal sub-periods to 40 years. Overall, the MERRA-2 deseasonalized SSR anomalies correlate well with either GEBA (R equal to 0.61) and BSRN (R equal to 0.62). The percentage of agreement between the sign of computed GEBA and MERRA-2 Δ(SSR) is equal to 63.4% and the corresponding percentage for MERRA-2 and BSRN is 50%. According to MERRA-2, strong and statistically significant positive Δ(SSR) (Brightening) is found over Europe, Central Africa, Mongolia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and some parts of the tropical oceans. In contrast, large and statistically significant negative Δ(SSR) (Dimming) occurs over the western Tropical Warm Pool, India, Southern East China, Amazonia, stratocumulus covered areas and some parts of oceans. MERRA-2 yields a dimming equal to −0.158 ± 0.005 W/m2/year over the globe from 1980 to 2019. This 40-year dimming, which occurred in both hemispheres, more over ocean than continental areas (−0.195 ± 0.006 and −0.064 ± 0.006 W/m2/year, respectively), underwent decadal scale variations.