Interdecadal changes in summer TC activity in East China Sea

Abstract

The study analyzed the time series of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies which passed through the East China Sea between July and September from 1963 to 2012. The result of applying the statistical change-point analysis to this time series shows that a climate regime shift occurred in 1983 when the TC frequencies which pass the East China Sea area started increasing. The study then analyzed the average difference after 1983 (1984–2012) and before 1983 (1963–1983). The TC genesis frequency shows a tendency in mainly appearing in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983 and the southern part between 1984 and 2012. The TC passage frequency shows a pattern that the TCs move from the far northeast sea of Philippines and change direction to Korea and Japan, passing through the East China Sea between 1984 and 2012. Meanwhile, the TC passage frequency shows a pattern which moves from the far southeast sea of the Philippines to southern China in the west direction in the previous period (1963–1983). These TC movement patterns coincide with the development status of the subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) which averages for each period. It shows that the SWNPH in the second period stays away from the SWNPH in the second period from the northeast direction, but that the SWNPH in the first period expands to western Taiwan. This study analyzes the difference between the two periods in the 500-hPa streamline to understand the changes in such TC activities in the two groups. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations centered in the southern part of Japan are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific. The anomalous southerlies from the anomalous circulations are outstanding in the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. Therefore, the TCs generated in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific move along with the anomalous steering flow (anomalous southwesterlies) and up toward the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific areas, but the anomalous cyclonic circulations are strengthened in the tropical Northwestern Pacific below 15° N, causing the generation of TCs mainly in the northwestern part of the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983, and in the southeastern part between 1984 and 2012.