Interconnectedness dynamic spillover among US, Russian, and Ukrainian equity indices during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war

Abstract

We examine the dynamics and spillover effects of interconnectedness among equity indices during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war. Using daily data from June 2010 to May 2023, we consider five major equity indices, namely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (Nasdaq), Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500), PFTS (Ukraine), and Moscow Exchange (MOEX; Russia). The results demonstrate a 45 % level of the total connectedness index to explain the interconnectedness among these indices. The findings indicate that the DJIA, Nasdaq, Small Cap 100, and MOEX are net receivers of spillovers, whereas the S&P 500 and PFTS are significant net transmitters. Moreover, analysis of different periods, including before and during COVID-19 and before the Russian–U war, provides insights into the changing patterns of interconnectedness and spillover effects during these events. This study contributes to a better understanding of the interdependency and transmission mechanisms among equity markets and highlights the importance of considering external factors and geopolitical events in formulating risk management and investment strategies.