Intercomparison of three indices for addressing drought variability in North China Plain during 1962−2012

Abstract

Drought is one of the most complex climatic phenomena causing detrimental damage to the society and environment. Although a universal definition of drought is still lacking, it is usually related to a long and sustained period during which water becomes scarce. Compared with other hydrological hazards, such as floods, the development of droughts is slow and the inception and termination of droughts are very difficult to identify. Moreover, droughts are only perceived when human activities and the environment are affected. Thus, droughts are the best example of a “creeping and penetrating” type natural hazard (Gillette 1950, Wilhite et al. 1985, 2005). The North China Plain (NCP), one of the huge granaries and the centre of politics, economics and culture in China, has frequently been subjected to droughts during recent decades. With population growth and agriculture expansion, the sustainable development of NCP has been challenged by constrained water resources and associated disasters. In other words, NCP is turning into one of the most vulnerable “hotspots” in China in terms of water shortage and water security. Accurate assessments of drought for an early warning would play a critical role in water resources management and planning. The present study compares the spatio-temporal variations of droughts in NCP by using three commonly-used indices and aims to elucidate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and explore a relative, reasonable index for describing regional water security in NCP.