Intercomparison of In-Flight Icing Algorithms. Part II: Statistical Verification Results

Abstract

Abstract Recent research to improve forecasts of in-flight icing conditions has involved the development of algorithms to apply to the output of numerical weather prediction models. The abilities of several of these algorithms to predict icing conditions, as verified by pilot reports (PIREPs), are compared for two numerical weather prediction models (Eta and the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) for the Winter Icing and Storms Program 1994 (WISP94) time period (25 January–25 March 1994). Algorithms included in the comparison were developed by the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit [NAWAU, now the Aviation Weather Center (AWC)], the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Research Applications Program (RAP), and the U.S. Air Force. Operational icing forecasts (AIRMETs) issued by NAWAU for the same time period are evaluated to provide a standard of comparison. The capabilities of the Eta Model’s explicit cloud liquid water estimates for identifying icing regions are also evaluated and compar...