Intercomparison of Empirical Formulations of Maximum Wind Radius in Parametric Tropical Storm Modeling over Zhoushan Archipelago

Shuaikang Zhao,Ziwei Liu,Xiaoran Wei,Bo Li,Yefei Bai

doi:10.3390/su132111673

Shuaikang Zhao, Ziwei Liu + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111673

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Abstract

The Holland (2010) parametric wind model has been extensively utilized in tropical cyclone and storm surge-related coastal hazard mitigation and management studies. The only remaining input parameter, the radius of maximum wind speed (Rm), is usually generated by previously proposed empirical relations which are, however, sensitivity to study areas in producing better performed numerical results. In order to acquire optimal Rm formulations over the region of Zhoushan Archipelago, East China Sea, 16 empirical relations were compiled into the Holland (2010) model to produce time series of the pressure, wind speed, and wind direction in comparison to observational records taken at three stations during the tropical cyclone events of Ampil and Rumbai. Their respective agreements were evaluated by error metrices including the root mean square error, correlation coefficient, mean bias error, and scatter index, whilst the overall performances of the 16 formulations were ranked according to a proposed comprehensive error. In the following order, the Rm formulations of Lu (2012), Zhou (2005), Kato (2018), and Jiang (2008) ranked the best for both events in terms of their minimum comprehensive errors; however, recommendations on the application of specific empirical formulations for the region of Zhoushan Archipelago are also provided herein from the perspective of conservation and accuracy.

Highlights

The East China Sea coast is frequently devastated by typhoon-induced storm surges and disastrous waves during tropical cyclone season each year due to its gentle continental shelf and low-lying coastal landform
In comparison to numerical weather prediction models, parametric wind models are more efficient in reconstructing pressure and wind fields of tropical cyclone events and have been extensively adopted in storm surge-related coastal hazards and emergency management
16 Rm formulations are compiled into the H10 model to produce a time series of pressure, wind speed, and wind direction at three observational stations in the historical tropical cyclones events of Ampil and Rumbia, both of which took place in 2018

Summary

Introduction

The East China Sea coast is frequently devastated by typhoon-induced storm surges and disastrous waves during tropical cyclone season each year due to its gentle continental shelf and low-lying coastal landform. The potential catastrophic impact on the coastal community in the future is currently far from mitigated since a northwestward tendency of upcoming typhoon tracks has been plausibly predicted over the Western North Pacific according to representative concentration pathway scenarios [1,2]. The accurate and efficient description of wind fields for historical or hypothetical typhoon events plays a fundamental role in the assessment of coastal damage and the planning of a mitigation strategy. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Fifth-Generation Penn. The Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) have been extensively utilized to predict tropical cyclone tracks and generate high-resolution wind fields at a regional scale [3,4,5].

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