Abstract
Abstract. Extreme precipitation events are responsible for major floods in any part of the world. In recent years, simulations and projection of weather conditions to future, with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models like Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), has become an imperative component of research in the field of atmospheric science and hydrology. The validation of modelled forecast is thus have become matter of paramount importance in case of forecasting. This study delivers an all-inclusive assessment of 5 high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products including satellite data products and also climate reanalysis product as compared to WRF precipitation product. The study was performed in river basins of North Western Himalaya (NWH) in India. Performance of WRF model is evaluated by comparing with observational gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) precipitation data from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Other products include TRMM Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42-v7 product (0.25° × 0.25°) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) product (0.1° × 0.1°). Moreover, climate reanalysis rainfall product from ERA Interim is also used. Bias, Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Probability of False Detection (POFD), and Probability of Detection (POD) were calculated with particular rainfall thresholds. TRMM and GPM products were found to be sufficiently close to the observations. All products showed better performance in the low altitude areas i.e. in planes of Upper Ganga and Yamuna basin and Indus basin, and increase in error as topographical variation increases. This study can be used for identifying suitability of WRF forecast data and assessing performance of other rainfall datasets as well.
Highlights
1.1 Importance of Prediction of Monsoon PrecipitationThe Indian summer monsoon is a main mechanism having a significant role in the global climate system and towards the global water cycle (Trenberth et al, 2000)
This study aims to compare the performance and accuracy of different precipitation products, satellite and reanalysis datasets, for the North Western Himalaya (NWH) region
This study indicates the suitability of all 4 types of precipitation products evaluated in specific locations for daily timescales, in recent years (2010-2015)
Summary
1.1 Importance of Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation. The Indian summer monsoon is a main mechanism having a significant role in the global climate system and towards the global water cycle (Trenberth et al, 2000). The south-west summer monsoon governs agricultural, energy and water resources sectors. It is crucial for all applications to precisely estimate and predict the summer monsoon precipitation. Variations in the pattern of precipitation have the most adverse impacts among all meteorological variables on the humanity. The main concern is on the changes in extreme rainfall. As the intense precipitation events often causes disasters like flash floods, which in turn results in large-scale damage to the infrastructure, on natural ecosystems
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