Abstract
Abstract The interannual variation of surface fields over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are studied using data between 1900 and 1979. It is emphasized that the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) over the north Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall are significantly affected by synoptic systems and other intraseasonal variations. To highlight the interannual signals it is important to remove the large-amplitude high-frequency noise and very low frequency long-term trends, if any. By suitable spatial and temporal averaging of the SST and the rainfall data and by removing the long-term trend from the SST data, we have been able to show that there exists a homogeneous region in the southeastern Arabian Sea over which the March–April (MA) SST anomalies are significantly correlated with the seasonal (June–September) rainfall over India. A potential of this premonsoon signal for predicting the seasonal rainfall over India is indicated. It is shown that the correlation between the SST and the seasonal mon...
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