Interannual variability of water temperature in coastal waters of Eastern Sakhalin in May-June and abnormal cold snap forecast

Abstract

The analysis of water temperature interannual variability at weather stations of Roshydromet network in coastal areas of South-Eastern Sakhalin is carried out. The years of abnormal cold snaps in May and June were determined. The interval recognition method is used for their prediction. It is established, that the months preceding the anomalous ones have high recognition coefficients. To verify the results, baric maps for months with the highest recognition coefficients are constructed. General dynamics pattern of the prior pressure fields that determine extreme cold thermal regimes in the coastal waters of southeastern Sakhalin has been found. These years are distinguished by the presence of tropospheric depressions or tropospheric cyclonic vortex over the Sea of Okhotsk in winter season. Method for predicting of extreme cold events during the period of pink salmon growth in estuaries is developed for southeastern Sakhalin. Using this method, abnormal cooling of coastal waters could be predicted by dynamics of baric fields in advance of 1–5 months. This approach can be applied for other areas of pink salmon habitat at different stages of its life cycle. The method is based on relationships with strong correlation; results of forecasting could be verified by the baric fields plotting.