Interannual Variability of Summer Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific Depicted by CFSR and Associated Large-Scale Processes and ISO Modulations

Abstract

This study examines the interannual variability of summer tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall (TCR) in the western North Pacific (WNP) depicted by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). This interannual variability exhibits a maximum region near Taiwan (19°–28°N, 120°–128°E). Significantly increased TCR in this region is modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related large-scale processes. They feature elongated sea surface temperature warming in the tropical eastern Pacific and a southeastward-intensified monsoon trough. Increased TC movements are facilitated by interannual southerly/southeasterly flows in the northeastern periphery of the intensified monsoon trough to move from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan, resulting in increased TCR. The coherent dynamic relations between interannual variability of summer TCR and large-scale environmental processes justify CFSR as being able to reasonably depict interannual characteristics of summer TCR in the WNP. For intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) modulations, TCs tend to cluster around the center of a 10–24-day cyclonic anomaly and follow its northwestward propagation from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan. The above TC movements are subject to favorable background conditions provided by a northwest–southeasterly extending 30–60-day cyclonic anomaly. Summer TCR tends to increase (decrease) during El Niño (La Niña) years and strong (weak) ISO years. By comparing composite TCR anomalies and correlations with TCR variability, it is found that ENSO is more influential than ISO in modulating the interannual variability of summer TCR in the WNP.