Interannual variability and seasonal contribution of thermal expansion to sea level in the Persian Gulf

Abstract

In an attempt to understand the causes of the sea-level seasonal cycle in the Persian Gulf, we investigated the relationships of sea-level data from 11 stations with atmospheric pressure and thermosteric level. Sea level is significantly correlated among all stations. The mean trend in sea level for the Persian Gulf is about 2.34 mm/year. The thermosteric sea-level variability is estimated from temperature profiles at one-degree grid points. Contour maps of thermosteric level show that the height due to thermal expansion is high in summer and autumn, and low during winter and spring. The monthly mean thermostric height ranges from +2.2 cm in July to −2.1 cm in February. The major change in sea level due to the thermosteric level seems to be associated with the large change of the thermohaline circulation in the Persian Gulf. The maximum expansion occurs in summer, and the maximum contraction occurs in winter. Results of the regression analysis demonstrate that from 62% to 90.2% of the variance in the seasonal cycle is due to atmospheric pressure. The inclusion of the thermosteric sea level as a secondary forcing in the regression model improves the variance explained to 78.1–90.7%. The remaining change should be due to the halosteric effect and upwelling. Tide-gauge stations located at the Gulf's head show high correlation with Ekman vertical velocity. There are two distinct tide gauge stations in the Persian Gulf. One is found in the first cyclonic gyre and the other in the second gyre. The inclusion of Ekman upwelling to the model, improves significantly the variations explained as well, from 82.3% to 91.9%.