Abstract
The predictability of the widely known phenomenon of El Niño is investigated. For this, the recently found Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) is considered as the main mode of the short-term climatic variations because GAO includes the El Niño – Southern Oscillation process within itself. Three indices characterizing dynamics and interrelation of the extratropical and tropical components of GAO are defined. Among these indices there is one by means of which it is possible to predict El Niño with the lead time of about one year. Generally, it is more, than the lead times of present day hydrodynamical and statistical methods of the El Niño successful forecasting. Then, by means of wavelets, a range of time scales is cleared up in which the closest crosscorrelations exist of this index with an index characterizing El Niño itself.
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Schedule a callMore From: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
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