Interannual forcing mechanisms of California Current transports II: Mesoscale eddies

Abstract

Mesoscale eddies exert dominant control of cross-shelf exchanges, yet the forcing dynamics underlying their interannual and decadal variability remain uncertain. Using an ensemble of high-resolution ocean model hindcasts of the central and eastern North Pacific from 1950 to 2010 we diagnose the forcing mechanisms of low-frequency eddy variability in the California Current System (CCS).We quantify eddy activity by developing eddy counts based on closed contours of the Okubo-Weiss parameter and find that the spatial and temporal features of model-derived counts largely reproduce the short AVISO observational record.Comparison of model ensemble members allows us to separate the intrinsic and deterministic fractions of eddy variability in the northern CCS (34.5–50°N) and in the southern CCS (28.5–34.5°N). In the North, a large fraction of low-frequency eddy variability (30% anticyclones, 20% cyclones) is deterministic and shared with satellite observations. We develop a diagnostic model based on indices of the large-scale barotropic and baroclinic states of the CCS which recovers this deterministic variance. This model also strongly correlates with local atmospheric forcing. In contrast to the North, Southern CCS eddy counts exhibit very little deterministic variance, and eddy formation closely resembles a red-noise process.This new understanding of the external forcings of eddy variability allows us to better estimate how climate variability and change impact mesoscale transports in the California Current. The skill of our diagnostic model and its close association with local wind stress curl indicate that local atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver of eddy activity on interannual and decadal time scales north of pt. conception (~33°N).