Interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost thaw depth on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A comparative study using long short-term memory, convolutional neural networks, and random forest.

Abstract

An accurate estimation of thaw depth is critical to understanding permafrost changes due to climate warming on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). However, previous studies mainly focused on the interannual changes of active layer thickness (ALT) across the QTP, and little is known about the changes in the seasonal thaw depth. Machine learning (ML) is a critical tool to accurately estimate the ALT of permafrost, but a direct comparison of ML with deep learning (DL) in ALT projection regarding the model performance is still lacking. Here, ML, namely random forest (RF), and DL algorithms like convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks were compared to estimate the interannual changes of ALT and seasonal thaw depth on the QTP. Meteorological series, in-situ collected ALT observations, and geospatial information were used as predictors. The results show that both ML and DL methods are capable of estimating ALT and seasonal thaw depth in permafrost areas. The CNN and LSTM models developed using longer lagging times exhibit better performance in thaw depth prediction while the RF models are either mediocre or sometimes even worse as the lagging time increases. The results show that the ALT from 2003 to 2011 on the QTP exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the northern region. In addition, 68.8%, 88.7%, 52.5%, and 47.5% of the permafrost regions on the QTP have deepened seasonal thaw depth in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The correlation between air temperature and permafrost thaw depth ranges from 0.65 to 1 with the time lag ranging from 1 to 32 days. This study shows that ML and DL can be effectively used in retrieving ALT and seasonal thaw depth of permafrost, and could present an efficient way to figure out the interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost conditions under climate warming.