Abstract
The interactive effects of climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) on vegetation growth can be characterized by their effect on vegetation seasonal dynamics. The interactive effects, seasonal trend of vegetation growth, and its future consistency (potential for future trend) have not been adequately studied in the literature. In this work, using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and gridded climate data at a resolution of 250 m in the central Loess Plateau region, we examined seasonal vegetation dynamics with climate changes and the interactive effects of climatic factors on vegetation growth at the pixel and regional scales from the period 2000 to 2015. Vegetation cover in the Central Loess Plateau in China has dramatically changed due to the Grain-for-Green (GFG) ecological restoration program, which was designed to convert cropland to forestland or grassland since 1999. Our results show that the EVI increased significantly during the 16 year period and is likely to continue to increase in the near future. Relatively small Hurst exponents for forestland suggests that the potential for a future increased trend will be weak for the forest. Large Hurst exponents for grassland indicate its strong potential of further increase. Significant increases in spring precipitation have promoted vegetation growth, while significant decreases in summer temperature have had negative effects on vegetation growth. For temperatures between 10 to 20 °C, the impact of temperature on vegetation growth has a clear positive relationship with the moderator variable precipitation. For precipitation < 200 mm in the growing season, the impact of precipitation on vegetation growth has a clearly positive relationship with the moderator variable temperature. Results of this study will provide useful and important guidelines for designing forestland and grassland restoration plans in arid, semiarid and sub-humid regions.
Highlights
Vegetation dynamics are strongly affected by climate changes [1,2,3,4]
Substantial research progress has been achieved in studying vegetation dynamics under climate changes in arid, semiarid and semi-humid regions by using the satellite earth observation time-series data, for example the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data [5,10,11,12]
We focused on studying the interactive effects of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics
Summary
Vegetation dynamics are strongly affected by climate changes [1,2,3,4]. Ecosystems in arid, semiarid, and semi-humid regions are usually unstable and vulnerable to environmental changes, such as climate changes, desertification, and soil erosion [5,6,7]. Researchers have recognized the importance of interactions between climatic factors in driving vegetation dynamics and their responses to climate changes [5,7,8]. Understanding the interactions of climatic factors relative to vegetation dynamics has emerged as an important research task, especially for managing vegetation restoration in the aforementioned regions. Substantial research progress has been achieved in studying vegetation dynamics under climate changes in arid, semiarid and semi-humid regions by using the satellite earth observation time-series data, for example the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data [5,10,11,12]. The positive or negative direction of future vegetation growth trends in different seasons has not been carefully studied using this approach
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