Abstract
Abstract. Recent advances in visual data analysis are well suited to gain insights into dynamical processes in the atmosphere. We apply novel methods for three-dimensional (3-D) interactive visual data analysis to investigate marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) and polar lows (PLs) in the recently released ERA5 reanalysis data. Our study aims at revealing 3-D perspectives on MCAOs and PLs in ERA5 and at improving the diagnostic indices to capture these weather events in long-term assessments on seasonal and climatological timescales. Using an extended version of the open-source visualization framework Met.3D, we explore 3-D perspectives on the structure and dynamics of MCAOs and PLs and relate these to previously used diagnostic indices. Motivated by the 3-D visual analysis of selected MCAO and PL cases, we conceptualize alternative index variants that capture the vertical extent of MCAOs and their distance to the dynamical tropopause. The new index variants are evaluated, along with previously used indices, with a focus on their skill as a proxy for the occurrence of PLs. Testing the association of diagnostic indices with observed PLs in the Barents and the Nordic seas for the years 2002–2011 shows that the new index variants based on the vertical structure of cold air masses are more skilful in distinguishing the times and locations of PLs, compared with conventional indices based on sea–air temperature difference only. We thus propose using the new diagnostics for further analyses in climate predictions and climatological studies. The methods for visual data analysis applied here are available as an open-source tool and can be used generically for interactive 3-D visual analysis of atmospheric processes in ERA5 and other gridded meteorological data.
Highlights
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) are transport events of cold air from sea-ice- or snow-covered regions towards relatively warmer oceans (Rasmussen, 1983; Kolstad and Bracegirdle, 2008; Gryschka, 2018)
We investigate to which level of detail the 3-D structure of MCAOs and polar lows (PLs) is resolved in ERA5, demonstrate the potential of 3-D interactive visual analysis (IVA) as a tool to understand atmospheric processes, and use insights from 3-D IVA as inspiration for conceptualizing improvements to existing MCAO and PL indices
We analyse in 3-D the transport of cold air from regions covered by sea ice toward the ice-free ocean during MCAOs in ERA5 by assessing, for example, the dynamics of the 3-D isosurface of potential air temperature, illustrated here for two MCAO events in the Barents and the Nordic seas (Fig. 1, Movie 1)
Summary
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) are transport events of cold air from sea-ice- or snow-covered regions towards relatively warmer oceans (Rasmussen, 1983; Kolstad and Bracegirdle, 2008; Gryschka, 2018). We investigate to which level of detail the 3-D structure of MCAOs and PLs is resolved in ERA5, demonstrate the potential of 3-D IVA as a tool to understand atmospheric processes, and use insights from 3-D IVA as inspiration for conceptualizing improvements to existing MCAO and PL indices. The objectives for this study are (a) to obtain a 3-D perspective on the structure and dynamics of MCAOs and PLs, (b) to relate the 3-D structure to previously used diagnostic indices for representing these weather events on seasonal and climatological timescales, and (c) to evaluate diagnostic indices in the context of observed PLs for the main purpose of testing whether these indices could serve as proxies for PLs. The article is structured as follows.
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