Interactions of particulate matter with temperature, heat index and relative humidity on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in a subtropical city

Abstract

The associations of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with meteorological variables and particulate matter (PM) remain controversial, and limited evidence is available on heat index (HI) and coarse particulate (PM10-2.5). Moreover, temperature and humidity are considered major risk factors but their interaction with PM remains unclear. We combined the distributed lag non-linear and quasi-Poisson models to estimate the non-linear and lagged associations of meteorological variables and PM with HFMD based on reported HFMD during 2015–2019 in Fuzhou, China. The multiplicative term of interaction was used to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological variables or PM at different levels of another variable. Stratified analyses were used to identify vulnerable subpopulations. We observed inverted-V-shaped relationships between HFMD and temperature and HI, and the W- and N-shaped for relative humidity (RH) and PM, respectively. Extreme high (i.e., the 95th percentile) temperature, HI and RH increased the HFMD with relative risks (RR) of 4.00 (95% confidence interval, 2.79–5.75), 2.20 (1.71–2.83) and 1.54 (1.35–1.75) referent to the minimum effect value of 10.3 °C, 69.4 and 54.8%, respectively. Higher concentrations of PM rapidly increased the HFMD. Infants under 2 years suffered more from temperature, HI and PM. There were synergistic effects between meteorological variables and PM on HFMD. For instance, the RRs of temperature (30 °C) and RH (40%) on HFMD increased from 3.68 (2.24–6.06) to 6.44 (4.29–9.66) and from 0.45 (0.14–1.47) to 2.15 (0.90–5.12) at low (<25%) and high (>75%) categories of PM2.5, respectively. While the RRs of 70 μg/m3 of PM10 and PM10-2.5 increased from 0.65 (0.32–1.31) to 2.93 (1.63–5.26) and from 0.86 (0.23–3.21) to 3.26 (1.23–8.62) at low and high categories of HI. These findings are essential for the development a prediction and warning systems and prevention and control strategies for HFMD.