Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling

James R. Meldrum,Patricia Champ,Lilia Falk,Hannah Brenkert-Smith,Christopher Barth,Jamie Gomez

doi:10.3390/fire2030046

Abstract

Fire science emphasizes that mitigation actions on residential property, including structural hardening and maintaining defensible space, can reduce the risk of wildfire at a home. Accordingly, a rich body of social science literature investigates the determinants of wildfire risk mitigation behaviors of residents living in fire-prone areas. Here, we investigate relationships among wildfire hazards, residents’ risk perceptions, and conditions associated with mitigation actions using a combination of simulated wildfire conditions, household survey responses, and professionally assessed parcel characteristic data. We estimate a simultaneous model of these data that accounts for potential direct feedbacks between risk perceptions and parcel-level conditions. We also compare the use of self-reported versus assessed parcel-level data for estimating these relationships. Our analysis relies on paired survey and assessment data for approximately 2000 homes in western Colorado. Our simultaneous model demonstrates dual-directional interactions between risk perceptions and conditions associated with mitigation actions, with important implications for inference from simpler approaches. In addition to improving general understanding of decision-making about risk and natural hazards, our findings can support the effectiveness of publicly supported programs intended to encourage mitigation to reduce society’s overall wildfire risk.

Highlights

The fire season of 2018 demonstrated the potential scope of impacts of a wildfire disaster to residents exposed to wildfire hazards
CHANCES1, the perceived chance of a wildfire occurring on one’s property, is weakly correlated with the hazard variables but not correlated with the parcel-level conditions, which is consistent with respondents’ having a relatively sophisticated understanding of the level of wildfire hazard faced by their property but not considering that home ignition zone (HIZ) characteristics, such as defensible space, could influence the probability of wildfire spreading onto their property
The bulk of the evidence suggests that property characteristics provide a useful measure of mitigation actions that have been conducted on a property, and simultaneous equation modeling demonstrates the importance of capturing the joint determination of risk perceptions and parcel-level property characteristics

Summary

Introduction

The fire season of 2018 demonstrated the potential scope of impacts of a wildfire disaster to residents exposed to wildfire hazards. Residents can take action on their individual properties, including structural hardening and maintaining defensible space, that complement risk-reduction actions taken at other scales in reducing the risk of wildfire to homes. The home ignition zone (HIZ) concept was developed and is supported by data from fire experiments, fire modeling, and post-fire studies, and it indicates that whether or not a home ignites in a wildfire is largely determined by the condition, materials, and design of the structure in relation to the structure’s immediate surroundings [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. Defensible space, which consists of clearing vegetation and other materials near the structure both to reduce nearby fuels and to enable safe and effective fire response [8], is widely recognized as effective at reducing risk to structures [9,10,11,12,13,14].

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Discussion

Conclusion