Interactions between Climate, Socioeconomics, and Land Dynamics in Qinghai Province, China: A LUCD Model-Based Numerical Experiment

Abstract

This simulation-based research produces a set of forecast land use data of Qinghai Province, China, applying the land use change dynamics (LUCD) model. The simulation results show that the land use pattern will almost keep being consistent in the period from 2010 to 2050 with that in 2000 in Qinghai Province. Grassland and barren or sparsely vegetated land will cover more than 80% of the province’s total area. The land use change will be inconspicuous in the period from 2010 to 2050 involving only 0.49% of the province’s land. The expansion of urban and built-up land, grassland, and barren or sparsely vegetated land and the area reduction of mixed dryland/irrigated cropland and pasture, water bodies, and snow or ice will dominate land use changes of the case study area. The changes of urban and built-up land and mixed dryland/irrigated cropland and pasture will slow down over time. Meanwhile, the change rates of water bodies, snow and ice, barren or sparsely vegetated land, and grassland will show an inverted U-shaped trajectory. Except for providing underlying surfaces for RCMs for future climate change assessment, this empirical research of regional land use change may enhance the understanding of land surface system dynamics.