Interaction strength and extinction risk in a metacommunity

Abstract

Species interactions and connectivity are both central to explaining the stability of ecological communities and the problem of species extinction. Yet, the role of species interactions for the stability of spatially subdivided communities still eludes ecologists. Ecological models currently address the problem of stability by exploring the role of interaction strength in well mixed habitats, or of connectivity in subdivided communities. Here I propose a unification of interaction strength and connectivity as mechanisms explaining regional community stability. I introduce a metacommunity model based on succession dynamics in coastal ecosystems, incorporating limited dispersal and facilitative interactions. I report a sharp transition in regional stability and extinction probability at intermediate interaction strength, shown to correspond to a phase transition that generates scale-invariant distribution and high regional stability. In contrast with previous studies, stability results from intermediate interaction strength only in subdivided communities, and is associated with large-scale (scale-invariant) synchrony. These results can be generalized to other systems exhibiting phase transitions to show how local interaction strength can be used to resolve the link between regional community stability and pattern formation.