Abstract
Transmission of dengue virus is a complex process with interactions between virus, mosquitoes and humans, influenced by multiple factors simultaneously. Studies have examined the impact of climate or socio-ecological factors on dengue, or only analyzed the individual effects of each single factor on dengue transmission. However, little research has addressed the interactive effects by multiple factors on dengue incidence. This study uses the geographical detector method to investigate the interactive effect of climate and socio-ecological factors on dengue incidence from two perspectives: over a long-time series and during outbreak periods; and surmised on the possibility of dengue outbreaks in the future. Results suggest that the temperature plays a dominant role in the long-time series of dengue transmission, while socio-ecological factors have great explanatory power for dengue outbreaks. The interactive effect of any two factors is greater than the impact of single factor on dengue transmission, and the interactions of pairs of climate and socio-ecological factors have more significant impact on dengue. Increasing temperature and surge in travel could cause dengue outbreaks in the future. Based on these results, three recommendations are offered regarding the prevention of dengue outbreaks: mitigating the urban heat island effect, adjusting the time and frequency of vector control intervention, and providing targeted health education to travelers at the border points. This study hopes to provide meaningful clues and a scientific basis for policymakers regarding effective interventions against dengue transmission, even during outbreaks.
Highlights
Dengue, as the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne infectious disease, is caused by four dengue viruses and is transmitted to humans via Aedes mosquitoes [1]
This study indicates that temperature has a significant effect on the long-time series of dengue transmission, while socio-ecological factors play an important role in dengue outbreaks
The q values of individual factors over the long-time series are as follows: MeanT (0.271), mean relative humidity (MeanRh) (0.200), Precipitation (0.121), Pop_Den (0.202), night-time light (0.190), Landuse (0.191) and Travel (0.111). It indicates that mean temperature, with the highest q value, can predominantly explain dengue incidence followed by population density and mean humidity
Summary
As the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne infectious disease, is caused by four dengue viruses and is transmitted to humans via Aedes mosquitoes [1]. Dengue is spreading in more than 100 countries globally, mostly in the tropical and subtropical regions [3, 4]. Dengue is the deadliest mosquito-borne disease after malaria [4], with nearly 4 billion people at risk and over 20,000 deaths yearly [5]. In the literature prior to 2017, 291,964 cases of outbreakrelated dengue were reported, most of which occurred in the Western Pacific region (72.4%), followed by the Americas (19.4%) [6]. Latin America has experienced the most severe dengue epidemic in history, with the total number of cases more than 1.3 times the number recorded in 2015 [7]. According to a report from the World Health Organization, dengue is one of the top ten global health threats in 2019 [8]
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