Abstract
Pathogens and insect pests are important drivers of tree mortality and forest dynamics, but global change has rapidly altered or intensified their impacts. Predictive understanding of changing disease and outbreak occurrence has been limited by two factors: ( a) tree mortality and morbidity are emergent phenomena determined by interactions between plant hosts, biotic agents (insects or pathogens), and the environment; and ( b) disparate global change drivers co-occur, obscuring net impacts on each of these components. To expand our understanding of changing forest diseases, declines, and outbreaks, we adopt a framework that identifies and organizes observed impacts of diverse global change drivers on the primary mechanisms underlying agent virulence and host susceptibility. We then discuss insights from ecological theory that may advance prediction of forest epidemics and outbreaks. This approach highlights key drivers of changing pest and pathogen dynamics, which may inform forest management aimed at mitigating accelerating rates of tree mortality globally.
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