Abstract
The paper presented is intended to analyze an approach to a long-term inter-sector and inter-regional economic analysis as based on an optimization model. This approach was developed in IEIE SB RAS and resulted in several directions of application. One of them is investigation of interactions between a national economy and its energy production segment. The model being discussed includes input-output tables for six regions of Russian economy supplemented with model blocks for interregional transportations. It includes a natural block of energy production, processing and transportation. The last version of this model combines 45 products of different economic sectors including 8 ones of an energy sector (rough oil, gas and coal, two kinds of petroleum products, coal processing, electricity and heat), and 6 Russian macro-regions; it is a composition of two sub-models for 2 time periods: 2008-2020 and 2021-2030. Each of the sub-models treats time changes in simplified manner – it means that all the variables are defined for the last year of the period and the variables of the basic year are fixed as exogenous ones. The dynamics of investments into fixed capital is treated as non-linear functions being adapted with the help of linearization techniques.
Highlights
Energy aspect plays the significant role in economic development of the country and there are plenty of research trying to understand the role of natural resources in regional economic growth
Some researchers try to analyze only some group of regions, such as Arctic ones, focusing on energy system structure’s study (Tabachkova et al, 2020); some researches tried to estimate the elasticity of energy intensity on the regional scale (Burakov, 2016) that could be implemented both for different countries and regions
Distinctions between these two variants show which of them would better according a GDP criterion – that one requiring additional investments for new engineering capacities to compensate short-deliveries of the imported products or that one suggesting a reduction of investments into the energy industry and energy-based industries because of a lower external demand for energy and, lower production energy resources
Summary
Energy aspect plays the significant role in economic development of the country and there are plenty of research trying to understand the role of natural resources in regional economic growth. Changing the input parameters researchers will get the reliable long-term estimations of different economic variables’ impact on the regional growth. Aggregated Input-Output Tables for the Russian national economy for each year from 1995 up to 2004 which include 20 sector products;. Since the end of 1980s, have to adjust regional differences of input coefficients to update current regional IO tables For this purpose, we apply certain kinds of RAS methods. We applied the model to estimate economic consequences of forcing Russian energy products out from European markets. Further use of new technologies by the US or other countries could make the world’s gas supply higher that could reduce gas prices if gas demand is stable It is expectable for the European market that additional gas produced will replace coal too as gas is an environmentally friendly and more effective fuel. Some European countries have political motives to reduce purchases of Russia’s gas
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