Abstract

Inter occasion variability (IOV) is of importance to consider in the development of a design where individual pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic parameters are of interest. IOV may adversely affect the precision of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimated individual parameters, yet the influence of inclusion of IOV in optimal design for estimation of individual parameters has not been investigated. In this work two methods of including IOV in the maximum a posteriori Fisher information matrix (FIMMAP) are evaluated: (i) MAPocc—the IOV is included as a fixed effect deviation per occasion and individual, and (ii) POPocc—the IOV is included as an occasion random effect. Sparse sampling schedules were designed for two test models and compared to a scenario where IOV is ignored, either by omitting known IOV (Omit) or by mimicking a situation where unknown IOV has inflated the IIV (Inflate). Accounting for IOV in the FIMMAP markedly affected the designs compared to ignoring IOV and, as evaluated by stochastic simulation and estimation, resulted in superior precision in the individual parameters. In addition MAPocc and POPocc accurately predicted precision and shrinkage. For the investigated designs, the MAPocc method was on average slightly superior to POPocc and was less computationally intensive.

Highlights

  • Inter occasion variability (IOV) is increasingly quantified in nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) models, but the impact of this type of variability on the optimal experimental design (OD) for the estimation of individual parameters is not clear

  • In this work two methods of including IOV in the maximum a posteriori Fisher information matrix (FIMMAP) are evaluated: (i) MAPocc—the IOV is included as a fixed effect deviation per occasion and individual, and (ii) POPocc—the IOV is included as an occasion random effect

  • If little information is provided about the individual parameters the patient will be regarded as a typical representative of the population and the predicted Empirical Bayes Estimates (EBEs) will be close to the typical population predictions, an effect known as g-shrinkage [2]

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Summary

Introduction

Inter occasion variability (IOV) is increasingly quantified in nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) models, but the impact of this type of variability on the optimal experimental design (OD) for the estimation of individual parameters is not clear. The NLME approach splits the model in fixed effects describing the typical population value parameters and different levels of random effects. In pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) analyses inter individual variability (IIV) and residual error (RE) are estimated, but if variability between occasions (e.g. between dosing occasions or observation periods) is apparent IOV could be introduced as a third level of random effects [1]. Good precision of the EBEs are of importance for effective model evaluation and for understanding and determination of individual differences in PK and PD. If the individual information is rich the prior population information will have smaller influence and the

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