Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

Abstract

Many studies have suggested that mean precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) will be increased by the ongoing global warming, but its quantitative projection by climate models has large variability, with some models suggesting even decreases. We investigate the inter-model variability of projected centennial changes of the EASM separately for Baiu over Japan, Meiyu over eastern China, and Changma over Korea by using monthly-mean model outputs provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. Results with the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are consolidated by normalizing with the global-mean near-surface air temperature changes. For all the three EASM land regions, inter-model differences in the mean precipitation changes are positively correlated with the southerly moisture flux changes to the south of the regions. The correlation is highest in June among the June-to-August months, whose reason may be because precipitation in early summer relies on large-scale southerly moisture transport. These changes are localized and nearly independent among the three regions where Baiu, Meiyu and Changma occur. The low-level southerly change to the south of Japan, which affects the Baiu precipitation change, is positively correlated with upper-tropospheric meridional wind to its north; it further exhibits a stationary Rossby-wave feature associated with the Silk-Road teleconnection. This study suggests that future changes in the EASM mean precipitation depend on circulation changes and more-or-less localized.