Abstract
Land prices are the key problem of urban land management, with prices of residential land being the most sensitive and the strongest social reflection among the different land types. Exploring spatial and temporal variation of residential land prices and the effect of land market factors on residential land prices can help the government formulate targeted regulations and policies. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of residential land prices and the factors influencing the land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on land transaction data from 2014-2017 using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show the following: ① Residential land prices in Beijing and Tianjin are significantly higher than those in other regions, while Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and western mountainous areas have the lowest residential land prices. Over time, a development trend of residential land price polycentricity gradually emerged, and the locational correlation has gradually increased. ② Under the influence of the land finance model of local governments in China, three factors, namely, the land stock utilization rate, revenue from residential land transfers, and the growth of residential land transaction areas, have significantly contributed to the increase in residential land prices. ③ Under the land market supply and demand mechanism and government management, four indicators, namely, the land supply rate, the per capita residential land supply area, the degree of marketization of the residential land supply, and the frequency of residential land transactions, have suppressed the rise in residential land prices. ④ The overall effect of land market factors on residential land prices in the central and northern regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is stronger than that in the southern regions, which may be related to the more active land market and stricter macromanagement policies in Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas.
Highlights
Land resources support various social and economic activities, and the extent to which they are reasonably allocated is directly related to the urbanization process, sustainable economic development, and the improvement of people’s livelihoods [1]
Through the spatial statistical analysis of the residential land price data, we can evaluate the characteristics of the data distribution and, when necessary, use logarithmic transformation to obtain normally distributed data that satisfy the assumption of variability
This study aims to study the spatial and temporal evolution of residential land price levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and the driving effect of land market factors on residential land prices, so as to point out the direction for future synergistic land market development in the region
Summary
Land resources support various social and economic activities, and the extent to which they are reasonably allocated is directly related to the urbanization process, sustainable economic development, and the improvement of people’s livelihoods [1]. Examining the relationship between residential land price change and residential market operation can provide a clearer view of the mechanism connecting residential land market operation to land price changes. Understanding this mechanism can help the government formulate clear regulations and policies to guide the healthy development of the real estate industry
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