Inter-Korean Relations: Factors and Prospects

Abstract

The relations between SouthKorea and North Korea were improved in2018 on the basis of the Sunshine policyideational platform and the inter-Koreanagreements reached between the two countries under the progressive administrationsof Kim Dae-jung in 2000 and Roh Moohyun in 2007. However, inter-Korean relations had been at a lull since the US-NorthKorea summit in Hanoi in February 2019despite the intentions of the parties to develop diverse forms of cooperation. Afterthat, the month of June saw a severe deterioration in the Inter-Korean relations.The aim of this article is to analyze the inter-Korean relations and the North Koreanpolicies of the South Korean governmentsfrom 1998 to 2020 as well as explain thereasons behind Seoul’s inability to makeprogress in dialogue with Pyongyang.South Korea’s prioritizing of its ties withthe United States as well as its increaseddependence on the United States were themain reason behind the stagnation of inter-Korean relations. Under the international regime of sanctions against theDPRK, Moon Jae-In has failed to put theSunshine policy into practice, for instance,re-open Kaesong Industrial Complex andMount Kumgang tourism zone. The factthat inter-Korean economic cooperationwas actually still linked to the denuclearization of the DPRK also had a negativeimpact on the prospects for maintainingthe positive dynamics of inter-Korean relations. The exacerbation of inter-Koreanrelations in June 2020 showed that in theabsence of practical inter-Korean cooperation and with the continuing deadlock inthe US-North Korean negotiations on thenuclear issue, Pyongyang is not interestedin normalizing relations with Seoul and itcan concentrate on relations with the United States. At the same time, the intensifying confrontation between China and theUnited States in the Asia-Pacific region isnot conducive to a political settlement ofthe Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and itcan potentially lead to an aggravation ofinter-Korean relations.