Inter-island nesting dynamics and clutch survival of green turtles Chelonia mydas within a marine protected area in the Bijagós Archipelago, West Africa

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Understanding spatial heterogeneity in reproductive success among at-risk populations facing localised threats is key for conservation. Sea turtle populations often concentrate at one nesting site, diverting conservation efforts from adjacent smaller rookeries. Poilão Island, Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, is a notable rookery for green turtles Chelonia mydas within the João Vieira-Poilão Marine National Park, surrounded by three islands (Cavalos, Meio and João Vieira), with lower nesting activity. Poilão’s nesting suitability may decrease due to turtle population growth and sea level rise, exacerbating already high nest density. As the potential usage of secondary sites may arise, we assessed green turtle clutch survival and related threats in Poilão and its neighbouring islands. High nest density on Poilão leads to high clutch destruction by later turtles, resulting in surplus eggs on the beach surface and consequently low clutch predation (4.0%, n = 69, 2000). Here, the overall mean hatching success estimated was 67.9 ± 36.7% (n = 631, 2015–2022), contrasting with a significantly lower value on Meio in 2019 (11.9 ± 23.6%, n = 21), where clutch predation was high (83.7%, n = 98). Moderate to high clutch predation was also observed on Cavalos (36.0%, n = 64) and João Vieira (76.0%, n = 175). Cavalos and Meio likely face higher clutch flooding compared to Poilão. These findings, alongside observations of turtle exchanges between islands, may suggest a source-sink dynamic, where low reproductive output sink habitats (neighbouring islands) are utilized by migrants from Poilão (source), which currently offers the best conditions for clutch survival.