Intensified warming suppressed the snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Understanding how hydrological factors interrelate is crucial when examining the impact of climate warming on snowmelt. However, these connections are often overlooked, leading to an unclear relationship between temperature and snowmelt. This study investigates the complex interplay between temperature and snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2020, focusing on how extreme high-temperature events affect the frequency of extreme snowmelt. Using a structural equation model, we detected three temperature-related factors that predominantly influenced snowmelt and extreme snowmelt. The annual average temperature was found to have a significant indirect impact on snowmelt, mediated by changes in snowfall, snow depth and snow cover. By contrast, high-temperature days (daily maximum temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile) and heat waves (at least three consecutive high-temperature days) negatively affected extreme snowmelt directly or indirectly. The direct effect of increasing extreme temperature events was associated with an earlier onset of high-temperature periods, which accelerated snowmelt and shortened the duration of extreme snowmelt periods. Additionally, the reduction in snow cover owing to warming emerged as a main factor suppressing snowmelt and extreme snowmelt frequencies. We also revealed spatiotemporal variations in the temperature‒snowmelt relationship that highly depended on changes in snowmelt patterns. The study elucidated why warming suppresses snowmelt and extreme snowmelt events in the Tibetan Plateau, highlighting the mediating roles of snow-related and phenological factors. The findings will provide scientific support for climate simulation and water management policymaking in alpine regions worldwide.