Intensified Interannual Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Northwest Pacific and the SST Gradient between the Southwest Pacific and the Western Pacific Warm Pool since the Mid-1970s

Abstract

Abstract The sea surface temperature gradient (SSTG) between the southwest Pacific (SWP; 40°–20°S, 160°E–170°W) and the western Pacific warm pool (WWP; 0°–16°N, 125°–165°E) in boreal spring was revealed to contribute significantly to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1980. The present study extends the analysis back to 1951. Results show that the interannual relationship between the SSTG and WNP TC genesis frequency is statistically significant only after the mid-1970s while insignificant prior to 1974. Further analyses show that the SSTG is strongly negatively correlated with the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the central Pacific (CP) in the recent period while with the SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) in the prior period. In the prior period, the spring positive (negative) EP SSTA induces an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the WNP. This partly offsets the impact of the SSTG anomaly on the atmospheric circulation over the WNP. In addition, the SSTG anomaly in spring shows poor persistence through summer. As a result, the relationship between the spring SSTG anomaly and WNP TC genesis frequency is largely weakened in the prior period. In the recent period, the response of the atmospheric circulation over the WNP to the CP SSTAs enhances the atmospheric circulation response to the spring SSTG anomaly, thus strengthening the relationship between the SSTG and WNP TC genesis frequency. These results are further confirmed by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations.