Intensified impact of northern tropical Atlantic SST on tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the western North Pacific after the late 1980s

Abstract

Previous studies suggest that spring SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) affect the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the following summer and fall. The present study reveals that the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is not stationary. The influence of spring NTA SST on following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is weak and insignificant before, but strong and significant after, the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, the NTA SST anomaly-induced SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific are weak, and the response of atmospheric circulation over the WNP is not strong. As a result, the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is insignificant in the former period. In contrast, after the late 1980s, NTA SST anomalies induce pronounced tropical central Pacific SST anomalies through an Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection. Tropical central Pacific SST anomalies further induce favorable conditions for WNP TC genesis, including vertical motion, mid-level relative humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear. Hence, the connection between NTA SST and WNP TC genesis frequency is significant in the recent period. Further analysis shows that the interdecadal change in the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency may be related to the climatological SST change over the NTA region.