Intensification of heatwaves in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020 – Role of soil moisture reduction

Abstract

Heatwaves pose increasing threats on water resources for ecosystems and human consumption especially in arid region, such as Central Asia (CA). As the hinterland of Eurasia, water scarcity and land degradation in CA have increased its vulnerability to heatwaves. While the frequency of heatwaves has been examined, more heatwave metrics such as timing are less known, possible influences of soil moisture on heatwave changes in this region are not fully understood. Using reanalysis and observational datasets, here we examine the spatial–temporal changes of heatwaves in CA during 1981–2020 and the role of various associated factors including soil moisture. The results show that the extreme heatwaves occurred more frequently in northwestern Kazakhstan. Temporally, heatwaves have been intensifying with significant increases in frequency (0.10 events/year), intensity (0.81 °C/year), and duration (0.08 days/year) since the 1980 s, and these trends have accelerated since 1997. The first yearly heatwave event tended to occur earlier in more recent decades, indicating an advanced heatwave season. We also found that the heatwave occurrences were significantly correlated with hydro-meteorological factors. In northwestern of CA, extreme heatwaves are exacerbated by a rapid decrease in soil moisture resulting from reduced precipitation and increased solar net radiation in this area. Our findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the mechanisms and predictions of heatwave in arid regions from the climate change perspective.